NFL Week Two Picks
We had a great start to the NFL Season last week, going up two units on only 3 units wagered. I’m looking to keep that momentum going this week using what we learned in week one, and I think I’ve got some really good picks this week.
Buccaneers -8.5 (-108) vs Browns (1 Unit)
Baker with a chip on his shoulder, in tandem with a complete dogshit Browns team is a recipe for a blowout. There is really no reason for me to believe this game will play out much differently than the Browns vs Jaguars in week one. I don’t expect the Browns offense to do anything, and I expect the Buccaneers to be able to move the ball at will. The only thing that could keep this game close is if the Bucs turnover troubles from last week carry over into this game (I wouldn’t count on it).
Baker Mayfield OVER 219.5 Passing Yards (-104) (1 Unit)
Can you guys tell that I really don’t believe in the Browns? Their secondary is burnt toast. I don’t know what the plan is if injury-prone Denzel Ward goes down at some point this season, there is zero depth to the unit and the defensive front has done them no favors with the pass rush. I was tempted to ladder this up to 260-280, but I’m afraid that the game will be over by halftime and the Bucs will just run the ball for most of the second half, so I’m sticking with 219.5.
Jaguars at Broncos OVER 45.5 (-108) (1 Unit)
This one feels a little too good to be true. Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars have scored 24 or more in 6 out of their last 7 games dating back to last year (with the one exception coming against the #1 defense in the NFL). I think they will continue that trend against Denver, and I think that Bo Nix is going to improve vastly over his Monday night performance. This just feels like a shootout to me, but I’m trapped in a paradox where the more confident I feel about the bet, the less confident I feel. Sounds crazy, I’m aware.
Cowboys vs Commanders Under 50.5 (+100) (1 Unit)
I don’t think Jayden Daniels and this Commanders offense is capable of scoring enough for this game to go over. Dallas may score 30, but that would require Washington to score 21+ for this bet to lose, which just doesn’t seem particularly realistic after watching week one.
Anytime Touchdown Parlay (+14255) (0.1 Units)
George Pickens
Saquon Barkley
Bijan Robinson
Ja’Marr Chase
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Brian Thomas Jr.
Summary
Buccaneers -8.5 (-108) vs Browns (1 Unit)
Baker Mayfield OVER 219.5 Passing Yards (-104) (1 Unit)
Jaguars at Broncos OVER 45.5 (-108) (1 Unit)
Cowboys vs Commanders Under 50.5 (+100) (1 Unit)
Touchdown Parlay (0.1 Units)
