College Football Week Four Picks
Week three was a forgettable week of gambling for me. Had some close calls on both sides but ultimately went 3-3. This week we’ve got a slate loaded with ranked matchups, and with that comes some classic Vegas traps (Ole Miss at Florida comes to mind). Here are my best picks to navigate those traps and make some money this weekend.
Texas at Tennessee UNDER 54.5 (-108) (1 Unit)
Even though Texas showed a lot of mettle in week two versus Ohio State, I’m still not sold on their offensive capabilities. Arch is off to a much better start than he was last year, but he still isn’t wonderful. I can’t easily picture this Texas team in an offensive shootout, and I don’t think that's what we’ll be seeing today.
Oregon Team Total OVER 33.5 (-110) at USC (1 Unit)
Guys. USC’s defense is giving up an average of 22.75 points per game. Not a great stat on its own, but it's made even worse when you look at who they have played. San Jose State, Fresno State, Louisiana, and Rutgers. With a schedule like that, any respectable power four team should be giving up under 14 points per game. Now, Oregon hasn’t exactly looked like the world-eaters we thought they would this year, but they have still been managing to put up points. I’m staying away from the spread and total in this game, because I think too much of this game hinges on whether or not Jayden Maiava has really cleaned up his big-game turnover problems, but I think the one guarantee is that win or loss, Oregon is going to score.
Ole Miss Team Total OVER 27.5 (-120) at Florida (1 Unit)
The spread in this game is the biggest trap of the year. Vegas is begging everyone to take Ole Miss +3.5 in this game. We also have to assume that Vegas knows that we know Ole Miss +3.5 is a trap line, and therefore wants us to take Florida -3.5. See where I’m going with this? Stay away from the spread. I wouldn’t be shocked if you told me Ole Miss won this game 38-17, or if they lost 45-38. The one constant when I imagine the outcome of this game is that Ole Miss scores a lot of points. To be completely honest, I wouldn’t be shocked if Ole Miss has 28 points by halftime. I love this bet.
Kamario Taylor OVER 249.5 Passing Yards (-108) vs Missouri (1 Unit)
Until I get burned by Kamario Taylor and Mississippi State, I am riding with them. This is the first ranked matchup at Davis Wade stadium in almost 10 years, and I expect those cowbells to be deafening (I might be watching the game on mute). Kamario Taylor, the hometown hero, is going to rise to the occasion and deliver a big game, win or loss.
Summary
Texas at Tennessee UNDER 54.5 (-108) (1 Unit)
Oregon Team Total OVER 33.5 (-110) at USC (1 Unit)
Ole Miss Team Total OVER 27.5 (-120) at Florida (1 Unit)
Kamario Taylor OVER 249.5 Passing Yards (-108) vs Missouri (1 Unit)
