CFP Week Two Picks
We’ve got a great weekend of college football ahead of us. Two marquee SEC vs Big Ten matchups (as well as Mississippi State vs Minnesota, which might be the most important of the three), a group of six showdown with huge playoff implications, the Border War, and the Cy-Hawk game. After digging through the slate, these are my favorite picks of the week.
Oklahoma -5.5 at Michigan (1 Unit)
DON’T OVERTHINK IT PEOPLE. I’ve seen a lot of people online pushing back on Oklahoma here, saying it's too obvious, and that Michigan is going to find a way to keep it close. Unless Michigan’s gameplan involves breaking John Mateer’s kneecaps (and to be honest, I wouldn’t put that past them), they are completely outmatched at every single position. Bryce Underwood is a terrible quarterback. Full stop. If he looked bad against the Western Michigan defense, Brent Venables is going to have him in Hell. I’m of the opinion that Oklahoma could play this game without their offense and they would still win the game. I’m not only taking Oklahoma -5.5, but I am also sprinkling some alternate spreads here. My additional bets are:
Oklahoma -10.5 (0.5 Units)
Oklahoma -16.5 (0.3 Units)
Michigan Team Total Points UNDER 17.5 (1 Unit)
Mississippi State ML (-115) at Minnesota (1 Unit)
Earlier I said this could be the most important game out of the three Big Ten vs SEC matchups this weekend. I’m not sure most people are appreciating the way this game is going to be used later in the season when we are all trying to compare middle of the pack Big Ten teams and middle of the pack SEC teams. We’re all going to be using this game to try to justify which conference should have a 9-3 team in the playoffs because they had to grind through a schedule where supposedly even the 5-7 teams are good. With that said, I think Mississippi State has an edge here, and yes, most of my logic is based on Kemario Taylor’s 70 yard touchdown pass from last week.
Ohio State at Texas UNDER 49.5 (1 Unit)
Even if I block out last year’s game, I just can’t really see this game having a very high score. I don’t believe it will be as low scoring as last year’s season opener, but more likely an outcome around 24-21. I think we’re going to see long, tough scoring drives, not big-play, 75 yard touchdowns. I can see it playing out like an NFL game, where you blink and we’re already halfway through the second quarter, and each team has only had the ball twice.
Summary
Oklahoma -5.5 (-115) at Michigan (1 Unit)
Oklahoma -10.5 (+173) at Michigan (0.5 Units)
Oklahoma -16.5 (+330) at Michigan (0.3 Units)
Michigan Team Total Points UNDER 17.5 (-110) (1 Unit)
Mississippi State ML (-115) at Minnesota (1 Unit)
Ohio State at Texas UNDER 49.5 (-108) (1 Unit)
