Eastern Conference Finals Preview
The Cleveland Cavaliers take on the New York Knicks tonight in Game 1 of the NBA Eastern Conference Finals tonight at 8:00pm EST. The Knicks are looking to get back to the NBA Finals for the first time in the 21st century, and the Cavs are looking to make it for the first time since LeBron James left in 2018. Here’s my breakdown of how I think the series will shake out and why, as well as some picks I like throughout the series.
My first and most important key to this series is Mitchell Robinson. Over the past few years, the Cavs big men, Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley, have struggled in the playoffs against physical teams, especially on the offensive glass. Even in these playoffs, when the Cavs have lost, it is often because Mobley and Allen have failed to control the paint. The key for the Knicks in this series is to play some bully ball against these two bigs, and Mitchell Robinson is who they’ll need to rely on to do so. For the Cavaliers, in order to neutralize Mitchell Robinson they need to attack him early and try to get him into foul trouble.
The next key is turnovers. The Cavaliers are averaging 16.6 turnovers per game through the first two rounds of the playoffs (James Harden alone is averaging almost 5 per game). This has already nearly cost them their first two series, and the Knicks have been playing too good for the Cavs to skate by without cleaning up their ball security issues. If James Harden and Donovan Mitchell play smart and clean basketball, the Cavaliers absolutely have a shot in this series.
Ultimately I see the Knicks winning this series in 6 games. Ultimately there is nothing I’ve seen from the Cavs which convinces me that they will solve their turnover problem. They are a good enough team to still win a game or two at home, or maybe even steal a game on the road while the Knicks shake off a little rust from sitting on their couches for so long, but in the end I think the Cavs will be overwhelmed by the Knicks' physicality.
For game one, there are two props that I love. First is under 217.5 points. The Knicks are coming off a long rest, and the Cavs have been sloppy with the ball. I think game one will be a very low scoring game, and I wouldn’t even be surprised if the winning team is held under 100 points. Assuming that there will be a surplus of missed shots, I also love Mitchell Robinson 8+ rebounds. If you don’t like betting rebounds, I also like Robinson’s points + rebounds + assists combo line (14+).
